Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) rose by almost 8% over the last week, compared to the broader S&P 500 which gained about 1% over the same period. However, the stock still remains down by about 7% over the last month (about 21 trading days). The recent gains come as the company reported slightly better than expected deliveries for Q3 2021, with total sales standing at 25,116 vehicles, up almost 190% year over year. Late last month, the company cut its delivery guidance for Q3 from a range of 25,500 to 26,000 vehicles to about 24,500, due to the ongoing chip shortage. Moreover, the broader Chinese indices have also risen over the last week, recovering a bit from the sell-off they saw last month due to the Evergrande crisis (see below) and also as fears about the government’s crackdown on the tech sector are easing.
Now, is Li Auto stock poised to grow further? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the historical stock price, there is a 53% chance of a rise in LI stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Li Auto Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Five Days: LI 8.4%, vs. S&P 500 1%; Outperformed market
(17% event probability)
- Li Auto stock rose 8.4% over a five-day trading period ending 10/8/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 1% over the same period.
- A change of 8% or more over five trading days has a 17% event probability, which has occurred 81 times out of 482 in the last two years.
Ten Days: LI 9%, vs. S&P 500 -1.4%; Outperformed market
(19% event probability)
- Li Auto stock rose 9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 1.4%.
- A change of 9% or more over ten trading days has a 19% event probability, which has occurred 92 times out of 482 in the last two years.
Twenty-One Days: LI -7%, vs. S&P 500 -2.5%; Underperformed market
(18% event probability)
- Li Auto stock declined 7% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 2.5%
- A change of -7% or more over twenty-one trading days has an 18% event probability, which has occurred 86 times out of 482 in the last two years.
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[9/23/2021] Li Auto Stock Hit By Chip Shortage And Evergrande Crisis, But It May Be Time To Buy
Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) stock declined by almost 7.5% in Monday’s trading and remains down by 9.5% over the last week. There are a couple of factors that drove the sell-off. Firstly, Li cut its guidance for the current quarter, noting that it expects to deliver about 24,500 vehicles, down from its previous guidance of 25,500 to 26,000 vehicles, due to the shortage of certain semiconductor components. This implies that September deliveries would stand at roughly 6,500 units - a decline of about 30% versus August. Moreover, last week, China’s minister for industry and information technology said that the country has “too many” EV players, and this is stoking fears that the EV space could see more interference from the Chinese state going forward. Separately, there are concerns that China’s second-largest real estate developer, the struggling Evergrande group, could default on its debt. The company apparently has liabilities to the tune of around $300 billion and a default could impact Chinese banks and credit markets, and this caused a broader sell-off in Chinese and global stocks on Monday.
So, is Li Auto stock worth a look following the recent sell-off? We think the stock is worth a look. EV demand clearly isn’t an issue in China as EV deliveries in August surged by 200% year-over-year to 249,000 across manufacturers. Moreover, the shortage of the specific chips that Li Auto appears to be waiting on appears to be caused by the current Covid surge in Malaysia, rather than by structural issues. This could resolve in the coming months, helping the company scale up production. Li’s valuation also remains attractive relative to other Chinese electric vehicle players, trading at about 8x projected 2021 revenue, compared to Nio, which trades at about 10x, and Xpeng which trades at over 11x. Li Auto stock also remains down by about 23% from its June 2021 highs, currently trading at about $27 per share, presenting a reasonable entry point for investors.
[8/31/2021] Li Auto Stock Updates
Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) posted a slightly wider than expected net loss for Q2 2021, although its revenues and outlook for Q3 beat estimates. The company delivered a total of 17,575 vehicles in Q2 marking a sequential increase of about 40% and a year-over-year increase of about 166%, driven by surging demand for the upgraded version of the company’s Li-One SUV. Vehicle sales came in at about $759 million marking an increase of about 42% sequentially. Gross profit margins stood at 18.9%, up from 13.3% in Q2 2020 and 17.3% in Q1 2021, indicating that Li Auto is producing its vehicles much more efficiently.
Li Auto’s outlook was also solid, with the company expecting deliveries to come in at between 25,000 and 26,000 for Q3 2021, marking a sequential increase of over 45% at the mid-point. The guidance is particularly encouraging as it comes despite higher competition in the Chinese EV market and the ongoing semiconductor shortage which has constrained production in the auto industry. Moreover, Li’s projected growth is also stronger than its rivals such as Nio which has only guided for 10% sequential growth at the mid-point of its guidance for Q3, and Xpeng which projects about 25% growth. Li also expects total revenue to rise to between $1.08 billion and $1.12 billion for Q3.
So is Li Auto stock worth considering at current levels? Although the stock has rallied by around 70% from its May 2021 lows to about $29 currently, it still trades at just about 9.5x projected 2021 revenues, which is lower than rivals such as Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng, which trade at about 11x and 13x, respectively. We think the lower multiple and stronger near-term growth prospects make Li Auto a solid pick at current levels. See our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three Chinese EV players.
[8/3/2021] Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: How Did Chinese EV Players Fare In July?
U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players provided updates on their delivery figures for July, with Li Auto taking the top spot, while Nio (NYSE: NIO), which consistently delivered more vehicles than Li and Xpeng until June, falling to third place. Li Auto delivered a record 8,589 vehicles, an increase of about 11% versus June, driven by a strong uptake for its refreshed Li-One EVs. Xpeng also posted record deliveries of 8,040, up a solid 22% versus June, driven by stronger sales of its P7 sedan. Nio delivered 7,931 vehicles, a decline of about 2% versus June amid lower sales of the company’s mid-range ES6s SUV and the EC6s coupe SUV, which are likely facing stronger competition from Tesla, which recently reduced prices on its Model Y which competes directly with Nio’s offerings.
While the stocks of all three companies gained on Monday, following the delivery reports, they have underperformed the broader markets year-to-date on account of China’s recent crackdown on big-tech companies, as well as a rotation out of growth stocks into cyclical stocks. That said, we think the longer-term outlook for the Chinese EV sector remains positive, as the automotive semiconductor shortage, which previously hurt production, is showing signs of abating, while demand for EVs in China remains robust, driven by the government’s policy of promoting clean vehicles. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle players.
[7/21/2021] What’s New With Li Auto Stock?
Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) declined by about 6% over the last week (five trading days), compared to the S&P 500 which was down by about 1% over the same period. The sell-off comes as U.S. regulators face increasing pressure to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which could result in the delisting of some Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing rules. Although this isn’t specific to Li, most U.S.-listed Chinese stocks have seen declines. Separately, China’s top technology companies, including Alibaba and Didi Global, have also come under greater scrutiny by domestic regulators, and this is also likely impacting companies like Li Auto. So will the declines continue for Li Auto stock, or is a rally looking more likely? Per the Trefis Machine learning engine, which analyzes historical price information, Li Auto stock has a 61% chance of a rise over the next month. See our analysis on Li Auto Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.
The fundamental picture for Li Auto is also looking better. Li is seeing demand surge, driven by the launch of an upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. In June, deliveries rose by a solid 78% sequentially and Li Auto also beat the upper end of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, delivering a total of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter. Li’s deliveries also eclipsed fellow U.S.-listed Chinese electric car startup Xpeng in June. Things should continue to get better. The worst of the automotive semiconductor shortage – which constrained auto production over the last few months – now appears to be over, with Taiwan’s TSMC, one of the world’s largest semiconductor makers, indicating that it would ramp up production considerably in Q3. This could help boost Li’s sales further.
[7/6/2021] Chinese EV Players Post Record Deliveries
The top U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) all posted record delivery figures for June, as the automotive semiconductor shortage, which previously hurt production, shows signs of abating, while demand for EVs in China remains strong. While Nio delivered a total of 8,083 vehicles in June, marking a jump of over 20% versus May, Xpeng delivered a total of 6,565 vehicles in June, marking a sequential increase of 15%. Nio’s Q2 numbers were roughly in line with the upper end of its guidance, while Xpeng’s figures beat its guidance. Li Auto posted the biggest jump, delivering 7,713 vehicles in June, an increase of over 78% versus May. Growth was driven by strong sales of the upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. Li Auto also beat the upper end of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, delivering a total of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter.
Now, although growth has certainly picked up, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio and Xpeng trade at 15x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 10x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle players.
[6/21/2021] Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced After Recent Rally?
The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year. Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.
The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li-One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.
Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle players.
[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?
Chinese electric vehicle majors Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.
However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.
Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.
[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?
U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.
Our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.
Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.
Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan, and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.
Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.
[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare
The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present. [1] While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.
Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Business
Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.
Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.
How Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended
Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&D and SG&A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.
Valuation
Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.
While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.
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