NASCAR Playoffs at Richmond odds, predictions: Surprising 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks by top model - CBS Sports

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Jasen Vinlove / USA TODAY Sports

The 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 will take place on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET in Richmond Raceway as the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs continue. The 38-driver starting grid has been set using NASCAR's new performance-based formula. Kevin Harvick is coming off a win last week in Darlington and he's got a solid 19-point lead atop the 2020 NASCAR standings. He's been awarded the pole for Saturday, and with three victories and 25 top-10 finishes in 38 career starts at Richmond, he'll be tough to handle starting from the front.

Harvick is a 7-2 co-favorite with Martin Truex Jr. in the NASCAR at Richmond odds from William Hill. Meanwhile, rookie Cole Custer is three points back from 12th position with two races until the 2020 NASCAR Playoff field is cut from 16 to 12. The likely NASCAR Rookie of the Year is a 150-1 long shot in the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds. Before locking your 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Richmond predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. 

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. At the Daytona road course, the model called Chase Elliott's win and nailed three of the top four drivers. Anybody who has follow the model has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Richmond race on Saturday, Sept. 12, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he's a massive 40-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Richmond odds from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch enters Saturday's race in 11th in the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series standings and he's only four points clear of being eliminated when the playoff field is cut from 16 drivers to 12. Expect the veteran driver to arrive at Richmond with a sense of urgency.

Busch has been a pillar of consistency this season, at one point recording a streak of 21 consecutive top-20 finishes. He'll bring a streak of 11 consecutive top-20 finishes at Richmond to the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 and he's also won twice at Richmond Raceway. With top-10 finishes at both Bristol and Martinsville already this season, he has his short-track setup dialed in well for Richmond.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas co-favorites at 7-2, stumbles big time and barely crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded field. After winning 23 times the last four seasons, Truex only made it to Victory Lane once during the regular season and then began the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs with a 22nd-place finish at Darlington last week.

Truex is now 57 points back of Harvick in the NASCAR standings and he'll have to start back in 14th at the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400. Even with wins in each of the last two races at Richmond and a win at Martinsville earlier this season, Truex will have his work cut out to navigate past 13 other NASCAR Cup Series championship contenders at Richmond Raceway on Saturday night.

How to make 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a massive 50-1 long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Saturday's 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Richmond odds (via William Hill)

Kevin Harvick 7-2
Martin Truex Jr. 7-2
Denny Hamlin 4-1
Kyle Busch 5-1
Brad Keselowski 17-2
Joey Logano 14-1
Chase Elliott 15-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Ryan Blaney 25-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Erik Jones 40-1
William Byron 50-1
Clint Bowyer 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Alex Bowman 60-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Matt Kenseth 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Christopher Bell 100-1
Cole Custer 150-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Chris Buescher 300-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
John Hunter Nemechek 1500-1
Michael McDowell 2000-1
Ty Dillon 2000-1
Ryan Preece 2000-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1

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