With states limiting travel and access due to the coronavirus, there could be anywhere from 25-30% fewer accidents over the July 4 holiday weekend. (Photo: Jason Doiy Photography/ALM Archives)This year, July 4th falls on a Saturday – just as it did in 2009 – when we were also are experiencing dramatic disruption to our economy and when unemployment levels were around 9%.
In 2009, for non-comprehensive auto claims with a date of loss over the July 4th five-day weekend (July 3-7), more accidents occurred on the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday. And, non-comprehensive vehicle claims that occurred over the July 4th five-day weekend accounted for 14.5% of overall non-comprehensive claim count for the full month of July 2009. By comparison, in 2019, when July 4th fell on a Thursday, the weekend losses accounted for only 13.9% of the July 2019 losses.
In their IHS Global Insight/AAA July 4, 2009, Forecast, travel was expected to fall for the second year in a row, as rising unemployment and sagging household incomes from the Great Recession kept more people at home. The largest declines in travel for the July 4, 2019, holiday versus 2008 were expected in the New England (-4.1%) and East South Central areas (-3.7%).
This year, AAA is not releasing a July 4th holiday weekend travel projection; however, its full forecast for the summer suggests travel will be down by more than 10% for the July-September period. Travel by auto is expected to account for the lion’s share of summer travel as people continue to avoid flying, but even travel by car is expected to be down 3% the summer.
CCC’s projections for the full 2020 travel year compared to 2019 remain unchanged from early June, given some of the activity now in states like Arizona, Florida, and California related to rising COVID cases.
With the COVID-19 pandemic reaching new critical levels in parts of the U.S. earlier spared, travel and claims activity for the July 4th weekend are more challenging to predict.
Non-comprehensive claim counts nationally fell sharply during late March and in April, and have since registered less significant declines. Comparison of the decline in non-comprehensive vehicle claim counts include less traffic and fewer miles driven during late March through June from COVID-19 for the regions defined by the AAA 2009 report, and suggests these areas may see the least amount of July 4th weekend traffic and accidents:
Non-comprehensive claim counts change week of June 21, 2020, vs. same week the prior year
Mid-Atlantic (NJ, PA, NY) -35.6%
Pacific (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA) -32.5%
New England (C.T., MA, ME, NH, RI, VT) -32.1%
South Atlantic (D.C., DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV) -26.7%
East North Central (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI) -24.2%
West South Central (AR, LA, OK, TX) -22.2%
West North Central (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD) -21.8%
Mountain (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY) -17.3%
East South Central (AL, KY, MS, TN) -16.9%
U.S. Total: -26.6%
With the COVID-19 pandemic now hitting areas such as Texas, Arizona, and Florida the hardest as we head into the holiday weekend, overall travel and claim counts may dip again. INRIX estimates miles driven when seasonally adjusted are still down nationally over 15%. Subsequently, CCC anticipates holiday weekend vehicle claims will be down 25-30% versus last year.
Susanna Gotsch (sgotsch@cccis.com) is a director and industry analyst with CCC Information Services Inc.
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