Jimmie Johnson owns just about every significant NASCAR Cup Series record at Texas Motor Speedway including wins (seven), top-fives (15), top-10s (21) and laps led (1,041). The 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET will be his last regular-season opportunity to add to those totals. The seven-time Cup Series champion, who is retiring at the end of this season, is still looking for his first win this season and is going off at 25-1 in the current 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds from William Hill.
He's tied for ninth on the 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds board with Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch. They're well behind top 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 contenders Kevin Harvick (5-1) and Denny Hamlin (11-2), both of whom have four wins this season. Before locking in any 2020 NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington.
Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model simulated NASCAR at Texas 2020 on Sunday, July 19 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.
Top 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 predictions
For the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's an 11-1 long shot in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After struggling at Texas early in his career, Blaney has been strong at this 1.5-mile track since joining Team Penske in 2018.
He has three top-10 runs in four races since that point, with the only exception coming in the 2019 spring race, when he had to drop out due to his engine overheating. He's been stellar on 1.5-mile tracks this year as well, finishing sixth or better in his last five races on them. With a strong recent track history and double-digit odds, Blaney is one of the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts bets you should be all over.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the top Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts starting lineup. The younger Busch brother has two career wins at Texas, with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2018.
But he hasn't found his way into the winner's circle this year in the Cup Series. And while he had several close calls earlier in the season, he hasn't finished better than fifth in the last seven points events, a span that also includes three races where he's finished 20th or worse. With short odds and not much recent success, Kyle Busch is one of the 2020 NASCAR at Texas favorites to fade this week.
How to make 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds of 11-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who wins Sunday's 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.
2020 NASCAR at Texas odds (via William Hill)
Kevin Harvick 5-1
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Kyle Busch 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Joey Logano 11-1
Brad Keselowski 11-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Erik Jones 40-1
William Byron 40-1
Clint Bowyer 60-1
Tyler Reddick 75-1
Christopher Bell 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Matt Kenseth 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Chris Buescher 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Ryan Preece 1500-1
Michael McDowell 1500-1
Ty Dillon 2500-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
J.J. Yeley 5000-1
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